RIVALRY LAB
MODEL vCARMEN-19.03OHIO STATE 2025 AGAINST MICHIGAN 2025, ON NEUTRAL GROUND.
Pick any available Ohio State or Michigan season. Both are translated into one neutral scoring era, then the game is simulated.
Seasons from 2004 forward use imported game data (possessions, turnovers, efficiency, red zone) when both teams have coverage.
TALE OF THE TAPE
PREGAME
GRADE BOTH SEASONS
DERIVEDEvery team is graded against the average team of its own year: 0 is average, higher is better. Grading inside each year lets any two eras meet on even ground.
TURN THE GAPS INTO POINTS
DERIVEDEach offense is matched against the other defense, the overall gap is added, and the result becomes points.
SET THE EXPECTED SCORE
DERIVEDAn average team scores about 25 points; each side starts there and moves by its Step 2 points.
TURN THE MARGIN INTO A CHANCE
DERIVEDThe expected margin sets each team's chance of winning before any simulated game.
SIMULATE plays this matchup 5,000 times and reports the results. Every run draws its own games.
Derived ratings: public Rivalry Lab product snapshot, generated 2026-08-17.
Snapshot: srs-elo-v1 ratings · srs-era-neutral-v1 era translation · cfbd-starterpack-1970-2025-v2 data coverage.